Becalmed before the Storm

Despite the Brexit vote, there is no sign of the UK leaving the EU.

David Cameron has resigned as Prime Minister and Theresa May has been rushed in as leader, supported by a new cabinet. A team has been assembled to deal with the UK's exit from the European Union and Brexiteer Boris Johnson has been made Foreign Secretary.

Despite all this Article 50 has not been triggered - the start of the official process for leaving. There has been no open discussion of what the UK's future relationship with its European neighbours will be and no mention of what the arrangement with the Single Market will be - the most critical issue for business.

So the country is in a strange place the summer. The UK has apparently decided to leave the EU and yet there is no sign of this happening. Business carries on a usual but firms and investors and universities are uncertain where their futures lie in the global economy.

There have been hints as to what might happen - mention of new rules on migration and comments from international politician on how see relations with Britain, but nothing concrete. As we continue to trade and travel as ever there is no sign of the chaos that will come as the country enters the process and unravels 40 years of agreements. When it at last tries to pull free.

There is a risk that international firms will leave, investment will be cut, deals cancelled and jobs lost. That the economy will nose-dive into the worst recession since the seventies.

Best to enjoy the summer. Relax in the warm weather: the calm before the economic storm that Brexit will likely bring.