David Cameron's attempt to silence UKIP and Tory Eurosceptics led him to call a referendum on EU membership that saw the UK vote to leave. It wasn't a massive vote in favour of exit, being less than 52%, but it was a majority.
Now the country needs to move on.
Initial signs are that it won't be easy. The Prime Minister has quit, Boris Johnson seems lukewarm on taking over and Nigel Farage has vanished from the media. Though George Osborne has tried to provide reassurance for companies and markets, as has Mark Carney from the Bank of England, share prices have fallen and the pound is weakened. Despite warnings of economic consequences the vote swung in favour of leaving, possibly by disaffected working-class voters responding to immigration and EU bureaucracy concerns stirred up by parts of the press.
So what next? The UK still needs to trade with EU countries - Europe is our greatest market - and there are students and workers to consider; laws and regulations related to firms here and British citizens abroad. After 40 years of membership many institutions are tightly linked between the UK and EU members.
To maintain trade access to the Single European Market (SEM), Britain will need to join the European Economic Area (EEA) or European Free Trade Association (EFTA). Being outside without any agreements would be fatal for business and is not a realistic option. There are already signs that a recession is on its way and any market disruption would worsen this.
The EEA allows access to the SEM''s tariff-free market in goods and services but it also involves free movement of capital and persons: there could be no controls on immigration. Members also have to comply with EU laws for trade but do not get the shape the legislation in the way full EU countries do.
If the UK chooses EFTA then there is no direct access to the Single Market and bilateral agreements would have to be negotiated with each member state, which would be difficult after an acrimonious exit from the EU.
Both EEA and EFTA have costs, with the EEA's being similar to full membership of the EU
Therefore the UK is left the choice of two EU fringe groups, one with good access to the SEM and the other more complex and risky. Both require compliance with EU legislation and there are similar costs being in EFTA as the EU. Immigration would also be unconstrained in the EEA and there'd be some adoption of policies from Brussels, though with less UK involvement.
Leaving the EU is unlikely to resolve many of the problems that motivated the vote to leave. There is still going to be free movement of workers and compliance with laws set by the EU. In addition there are still costs to membership but fewer financial benefits (through the European Regional Development Fund, for example).
So David Cameron's gamble has resulted in the UK out of the EU and having to renegotiate a slightly worse deal than it had before, accompanied by uncertainty and a probable recession. That's some legacy he's left.
Now the country needs to move on.
Initial signs are that it won't be easy. The Prime Minister has quit, Boris Johnson seems lukewarm on taking over and Nigel Farage has vanished from the media. Though George Osborne has tried to provide reassurance for companies and markets, as has Mark Carney from the Bank of England, share prices have fallen and the pound is weakened. Despite warnings of economic consequences the vote swung in favour of leaving, possibly by disaffected working-class voters responding to immigration and EU bureaucracy concerns stirred up by parts of the press.
So what next? The UK still needs to trade with EU countries - Europe is our greatest market - and there are students and workers to consider; laws and regulations related to firms here and British citizens abroad. After 40 years of membership many institutions are tightly linked between the UK and EU members.
To maintain trade access to the Single European Market (SEM), Britain will need to join the European Economic Area (EEA) or European Free Trade Association (EFTA). Being outside without any agreements would be fatal for business and is not a realistic option. There are already signs that a recession is on its way and any market disruption would worsen this.
The EEA allows access to the SEM''s tariff-free market in goods and services but it also involves free movement of capital and persons: there could be no controls on immigration. Members also have to comply with EU laws for trade but do not get the shape the legislation in the way full EU countries do.
If the UK chooses EFTA then there is no direct access to the Single Market and bilateral agreements would have to be negotiated with each member state, which would be difficult after an acrimonious exit from the EU.
Both EEA and EFTA have costs, with the EEA's being similar to full membership of the EU
Therefore the UK is left the choice of two EU fringe groups, one with good access to the SEM and the other more complex and risky. Both require compliance with EU legislation and there are similar costs being in EFTA as the EU. Immigration would also be unconstrained in the EEA and there'd be some adoption of policies from Brussels, though with less UK involvement.
Leaving the EU is unlikely to resolve many of the problems that motivated the vote to leave. There is still going to be free movement of workers and compliance with laws set by the EU. In addition there are still costs to membership but fewer financial benefits (through the European Regional Development Fund, for example).
So David Cameron's gamble has resulted in the UK out of the EU and having to renegotiate a slightly worse deal than it had before, accompanied by uncertainty and a probable recession. That's some legacy he's left.