Although they comment on the high levels of fuel imports into European and Asian markets they see demand for energy falling in some of these markets in the long run. Even carbon dioxide emissions are set to stabilise. Technology, investment and market flexibility will mean firms can respond to demand with increased output. All in all, it sounds good.
But a number of caveats need to be added. There are many assumptions in this (like most energy scenarios). The research is based on the belief that the future will be like now. That there is going to be steady growth and stable geo-politics. It also relies on efficiencies continuing, lowering energy requirements. And it labels gas as a climate-change friendly fuel, with lower carbon dioxide emissions. This ignores the high greenhouse effect of gas leaks, in reality negating any other benefits.
Critically, the report also basis all of the projections on data that is fundamentally flawed. Despite the detailed analysis given in BP's own Statistical Review of World Energy, the figures used are supplied by OPEC and private firms, many without any external verification. OPEC reserves are probably much lower than suggested, bumped up to ensure the prominence of members in international decision making; Russian figures have been state secrets for years without confirmation. And it is always in the interest of fracking and drilling companies (often wanting to attract investment) to give a positive spin to reserve estimates, sometimes using possible rather than proved data.
Even with all these optimistic assumptions, carbon dioxide emissions are expected to rise 29% over the period and energy demand up 41%, both concerning. When the faith in market forces, distorted data and technological-fixes is stripped out, this outlook appears much less positive.
It shows a world hooked on high energy use and short-term exploitation of resources. A planet with rising greenhouse gas levels and no co-ordinated policy for long-term energy. And yet again, like most analyses of the future, it suggests that everything will be fine if we trust in business. Let the markets do their thing and we needn't worry about anything.
If only this were true.