Global Energy Systems Conference

There were two main camps at the GES conference in Edinburgh. Looking at energy supplies for the 21st century, the speakers stated their views, with data and complex models being set out to support assertions.

But there was little consensus. 

The first camp consisted generally, but not exclusively, of industry people. Coming from Shell, IHS CERA, BP and also specific research areas of universities, their view was that things will work out. Conventional oil, gas and coal supplies face increased usage but we'll be fine.

The second camp was less optimistic. Comprising members of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, the IMF and a number of independent academics, this group saw an impending supply shortage and major disruption. Supported by data and projections they outlined a future of rising fuel prices and economic stagnation.

Seeminly bridging these groups were the analysts who acknowledged shortages but who propounded a certain solution.  Their remedies varied from Carbon Capture and Storage, nuclear renaissance to an explosion of renewables. Though sometimes restating the Peak Oil view they believed their approach would pull us out the impending energy crisis, in reality putting them in the optimistic camp. Their fixes tended to be technology based, on the whole.
What seemed to be missing was a consideration of political and social factors. There was little mention of changes to our energy usage or lifestyles. How we could alleviate many of these problems by shifting to a less energy-intensive way of life in the developed world, setting an example to developing countries. 
By the end of the conference these many positions had all been stated but there was no suggestion as to how they could be drawn together. They conflicted and could not coalesce and each camp left still wedded to their particular set of beliefs for the future.
The one obvious conclusion from their irreconcilable positions is that there is no leadership or consensus on energy policy. Government leaves it to industry to sort out fuels while they set vague policy targets, worried that raising too many concerns will unsettle voters and the all-powerful markets. Firms pursue short-term profitable courses of action without any clear long-term framework to direct them as academics plough lonely furrows in their own (research) fields.
So the conference finished with everyone drifting off in different directions, our views little changed and the world sliding towards a future of energy uncertainty.